India is outraged after the massacre of 26 tourists in Pahalgam’s Baisaran meadow on April 22. The chorus for making Pakistan pay for the dastardly terror act on Indian soil is rising in the country. People, including those in Jammu and Kashmir, are protesting against the attack and expecting the Indian government to launch a befitting offensive against the perpetrator of terror, that is Pakistan, and more specifically, the Pakistan Army. The heart-wrenching picture of a young bride seated beside her slain husband with blood stains on her clothes became the frame of horror that the country will scarcely forget. The video in which the bride is heard telling locals, “I was eating bhelpuri with my husband. A man came over and asked my husband if he was Muslim. When he said no, the man shot him dead,” was played over and over again, making people’s blood boil with outrage. They want India to avenge the 25 killed tourists with military force. Like it did after the terror attacks in Uri in 2016 and in Pulwama in 2019. Ten days after four Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terrorists killed 19 soldiers in an Indian Army unit on September 18, 2016, Indian Army commandos conducted a series of surgical strikes on terror launchpads and camps across the Line of Control and killed 150 terrorists. Similarly, after a suicide vehicle bomb attack by a JeM operative in Pulwama killed 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) troopers, India sent its fighter jets into Pakistan territory to bomb JeM camp in Balakot. This time too, people are demanding that India launch a similar land or air strike in Pakistan to take revenge for the Pahalgam massacre.
When Prime Minister Modi cut short his UAE visit and returned to India on April 23, expectations rose after a retaliatory strike. But after chairing a meeting of the Cabinet Committee of Security (CCS), PM Modi decided to launch a diplomatic offensive first. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told reporters that India had decided to put the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 into abeyance “until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism”. Among other decisions that CCS took were: closure of border check-post at Attari in Amritsar, expulsion of defence attaches and their senior advisers in the Pakistani high commission in Delhi, and revocation of SAARC visas issued to Pakistani citizens. Pakistani citizens were given 48 hours to leave India. All these are a diplomatic response to a terror attack. Obviously, Indians want more. Six days have gone, and people are still waiting for something bigger to happen. The meeting of defence minister Rajnath Singh with PM Modi for more than 40 minutes after Singh met Indian Army chief General Upendra Dwivedi has fueled these expectations. Will India launch a military attack against Pakistan on the lines of the land or air surgical strikes post Uri and Pulwama? Will India help Pakistan Army chief General Amit Munir by doing that? Will India fall in Pakistan Army’s trap? These are questions that need answers. In due course of time, all these questions shall be answered.
I say that India will fall in Pakistan Army’s trap if it launches a military strike for the following reason: the Pakistan Army, beleaguered by the internal conflicts in Balochistan and Sindh provinces, is looking for a deflection. If the country goes into a full-fledged war, Pakistani nationals will stop bothering about those internal issues and General Munir will get a breather. The Pakistan Army has also earned Pakistanis’ ire for failing to rein in the supporters of former Pakistan PM Imran Khan. Obviously, Pakistani establishment, especially the ISI and the Army, was rattled by developments in Kashmir following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Flow of tourists to the Valley was increasing steadily over the years, reflecting trust in the security arrangements in Kashmir. Locals were no longer biting Pakistan’s bait and no longer joining the terror organisations. All these developments were making Pakistan squirm in its chair, and it was desperate to do something that affected peace in Kashmir and also deflected people’s attention in its own land. Pahalgam massacre seems to have given Pakistan hope to achieve both these targets – only if India falls in the trap.
The calls for boycotting tourism in Kashmir should stop. PM Modi should give people the confidence that Indian security forces will increase vigil around tourist spots. On the other hand, India should surprise Pakistan by its response – like it did after Uri and Pulwama – by a calibrated, well-thought retaliation.
