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Advantage BJP in Bihar

Nitish Kumar is getting booed on social media for his decision to snap ties with RJD and rejoin NDA but the real player in this political game is BJP, which is eyeing bigger gains.

Nitish Kumar is Bihar’s longest serving chief minister since Independence. He’s been in the CM’s office for 17 years and 151 days, which is 100 days more than the total number of years of premiership of Shri Krishna Sinha of the Congress. Sinha, however, was the premier of Bihar for 3 years and 247 days prior to Independence. Nitish Kumar’s longest continuous term is almost nine years – 8 years and 341 days, to be precise, till the time of writing this report. This is the highest for any politician in Bihar. On January 28, 2024, he took the oath of Chief Minister for the ninth time. India’s longest serving Chief Minister – Pawan Kumar Chamling, who was CM of Sikkim from December 1994 to May 2019 (24 years and 165 days) also did not take oath as many times as Nitish Kumar has. For these political records, one would think, Nitish Kumar would get bouquets and cement his name in record books. But, on the contrary, he’s the subject of ridicule and mirth on the social media since January 28 when he was sworn in the ninth time. 

The reason is his love-hate relationship with country’s biggest political party, the Bhartiya Janata Party. In last one decade, Nitish Kumar has switched sides for the fifth time this January. Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) contested the 2010 Assembly elections as an ally of the BJP but in the next Assembly election, Nitish was with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress. In 2020, he returned to the NDA fold but two years later, he jumped ship and joined Mahagathbandhan led by the RJD. This January, he returned to the NDA the third time in a decade. For these U-turns, Nitish Kumar has invited social media’s wrath. Some people called JD(U), Janata Dal (U-turn) and Nitish Kumar was labeled ‘Paltu Ram’. 

Even though Nitish Kumar was switching sides between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, and his party was scoring the lowest among its allies, Nitish Kumar was safely ensconced on the Chief Minister’s chair, only changing his deputy CMs as per the alliance. In 2015 and 2020 elections, JD (U) got fewer seats than RJD but Lalu Yadav’s party was happy to give Nitish Kumar the mantle of the Chief Minister. This may lead one to believe that Nitish Kumar has always emerged as the winner in these political bargains and alliances. But truth is far from it. Ever since the BJP entered into an alliance with JD(U) in Bihar, the party has been increasing its footprint in the Assembly. In 2005, BJP had 37 seats in Bihar, and got 74 MLAs in 2020, emerging as the second biggest party in the Assembly after the RJD; JD(U) is the third with 45 seats. Handing over the CM’s post on a platter to its junior partner may seem a political hara-kiri for the BJP but the party ruling the Centre isn’t naïve; it’s aiming for bigger gains in the Parliamentary polls due later this year. When JD(U) went solo in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it won just two seats; and when it fought the polls as part of the NDA in 2019, the alliance won 39 out of 40 LS seats in Bihar. BJP wants to have all 40 seats in its kitty this time with the help of JD(U). 

Getting Nitish on its side helps the NDA serve many purposes. One, it weakens the INDIA bloc; and two, it makes a deadly electoral combination of Hindutva plus social engineering. Nitish Kumar’s exit from INDIA bloc makes the Opposition bloc led by the Congress a meek combination against the NDA led by Prime Minister Modi. The bloc is already smarting under the slight by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, both very strong regional leaders. Some people say that Nitish Kumar was uneasy in the INDIA bloc after he wasn’t made its convenor. Nitish Kumar was nursing the Prime Ministerial aspirations, they add. After the Pran Pratishtha ceremony of Ram Lalla at Ayodhya on January 22, it has become quite evident that Modi is almost set to return to power at the Centre. Nitish Kumar may have thought it wise to be on Modi’s side even if that meant settling for the CM’s post and consigning his PM dreams into the Saryu waters. 

What BJP did in Bihar is quite like pulling the rug from under the feet of the Opposition but surprisingly the party is not getting any brickbats for the topple. The villain, clearly, is Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar’s deputy CM in the previous government and RJD chairperson Tejashwi Prasad Yadav has reacted to the political upheaval with the promise that the real game is yet to happen, and may try to play the victim card in the state, but it appears unlikely that his ploy will offer any competition to the massive Hindutva wave already sweeping the country. 

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